What Now Netflix?

Some thoughts on yesterday’s Netflix-Warner Bros announcement.

IMPACT: Linear TV is not going to die any faster than it was last week. Think of it as a slowly leaking balloon. 

Or AOL. 

Take your pick. 

If anything, this should hasten a long overdue merger/collaboration between Paramount and Comcast as that is the only way they can compete against Google, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Disney. 

Or, in a more likely scenario, put them in a good position for a buyout by one of the tech giants.

Again, take your pick

THE BIG LOSER: Disney. If there was ever a chance that Disney was going to overtake Netflix as “The Streaming Service You’ll Never Give Up That Also Has A Profitable Movie Studio”, this pretty much closes that door.

THE BIG IMMEDIATE QUESTION: Will the deal go through? I think it will, especially if they push a “this is good for consumers” message. Both Netflix and HBO are popular across the political spectrum and neither is seen as overly “woke”. (HBO may be seen as overly “highbrow”, but shows like The Sopranos and Succession don’t ring right wing bells.) 

There’s also no news network involved—CNN is not part of this deal, which makes this  deal very different than prior media deals, the OG AT&T-Warner one in particular

OTOH, Paramount’s Ellison The Younger is reportedly already lobbying Trump to void the deal and much will depend on whether he’s able to position Netflix as a “tech” company or if they can position themselves as a “Hollywood” company. 

Which is ironic, seeing as Netflix once basked in the “FAANG” glow. That grouping—as I may have mentioned once or twice—never made sense: Netflix has nothing in common with those massive conglomerates and their multiple lines of business.

So there’s that, and given that up is often down in DC these days, it’s hard to grok how this will shake out.

But if the overall vibe of the next few days is that most consumers see Netflix as “Hollywood" and the merger as a net positive, that puts the odds in their favor.

THE BIG LONG TERM QUESTION: Will Netflix allow HBO to be HBO? Meaning not messing with whatever magic there is that goes into making the sort of TV shows that are the subject of endless stories in that piece of the media universe that stretches from The Atlantic to Vanity Fair, with a major stop at the New York Times in between.

Because, as I outlined in yesterday's Week In Review, the one thing that’s missing from Netflix’s current line-up are the sorts of prestige “HBO-like” shows that helped make the service famous.

If they can’t keep that machine going, the purchase is essentially worthless and Jeff Bewkes may have the last laugh.

To be continued….