The $1 Billion Problem: Why Disney May Be Hollywood's Only Winner in 2025
It’s time for us to rethink Hollywood’s blockbuster rubric.
As of this writing, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch live-action remake is the only Hollywood film to surpass $1 billion at the global box office this year. After The Dark Knight became just the fourth film ever to surpass $1 billion in 2008, 40 (!) additional movies hit that mark in the ensuing decade. Yet only nine films since 2021 have reached that goal and Disney had a hand in four of them. As the superhero genre bumps against a lowered ceiling and multiplexes starve for the same volume of wide releases from the pre-pandemic days, it’s become clear the industry has entered a new box office normal.
Despite this new reality, it appears as if Disney will be the only studio adding to the $1 billion club throughout the rest of 2025—and that’s bad news for rival studios dealing with their own theatrical complications. (Shout out to Warner Bros. for a diverse year of hits across genres and budget ranges). Disney’s Avatar: Fire and Ash and Zootopia 2 are demonstrating exceptional film tracking performance among unreleased movies this year, according to Greenlight Analytics. Avatar claims the top position in four out of five key metrics—Interest, Theatrical Intent, Willingness to Pay, and Premium Large Format (PLF)—while ranking 2nd in Awareness. Zootopia 2 consistently holds strong second-place positions across Interest, Theatrical Intent, and Willingness to Pay, ranks 3rd in Awareness, and places 5th in PLF intentions. These strong ranks are especially impressive given how far out each film’s release is: Zootopia 2 won’t open until late November while Avatar hits theaters one month later.
The expected breakout success of both films helps to mask the underperformance of disappointing Disney releases such as Snow White and Elio. Franchise fatigue has hit Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar, with all three brands struggling to deliver top tier commercial results across recent film and TV releases. Yet the Mouse House still has enough firepower to likely lead the field in ticket sales this year. In the process, it hopefully conjures up more moviegoing momentum among general audiences.
Arguably more important for the corporate bottom line is how these likely Q4 hits will send much-needed boosts to Disney+ and Hulu across the first half of 2026. There’s more than enough evidence to show that theatrical films out-perform digital exclusives on streaming. But the timing couldn’t be better (or more calculated) as Disney recently announced that it will sunset the standalone Hulu app next year while introducing a new Disney+/ESPN bundle in the near future. What better way to try and juice engagement than with what looks to be two of the biggest film successes of the year?
No, we can no longer expect every tentpole to flirt with $1 billion at the global box office. But thanks to a more volatile theatrical marketplace and the increased importance of streaming, those that do will be more valuable than ever before.
