‘Zootopia 2’ Sets the Floor. ‘Avatar,’ ‘Hoppers,’ and ‘Star Wars’ Set the Ceiling'
It's fair to say that 2025 was a volatile year for Disney movies both at the box office and on Disney+. Three Marvel films, Snow White, Lilo & Stitch, and Elio all landed on the streamer softer than expected. But Zootopia 2 marks a major bounce back. Disney said it generated 32 million global views in seven days and Nielsen reported 28.6 million hours of U.S. viewership in its opening frame. That last figure puts it directly in line with recent animated sequels Moana 2 (33.3 million) and Inside Out 2 (30.3 million) that similarly evolved into guaranteed events.
Will the next three big Disney films heading to Disney+ extend this hot streak? Avatar: Fire & Ash, Hoppers and Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu offer vastly different value propositions. Greenlight Analytics surveys audiences on where they plan to watch, and that intent signal is the best pre-release preview of streaming performance.
Avatar: Fire & Ash
As of this writing, Fire & Ash is well behind The Way of Water at the domestic box office. But it still posted the best Theatrical Intent (54%) and PLF (21%) scores out of Zootopia 2 and Hoppers. It also registered the lowest Home Intent (24.9%) overall — 8.2% willing to pay to watch, 16.6% opting to wait for streaming. James Cameron films mobilize audiences for premium theatrical formats. Yet streaming re-watches aren't always in the cards. Despite its prodigious global ticket sales, The Way of Water was "only" the 9th most-streamed movie of 2023 (106 million U.S. hours), per Nielsen.
The Avatar films impress on Disney+, but draw a more compressed audience. The same rewatch loop that drives family animation to mind-boggling engagement numbers doesn't exist for this franchise. Maybe Fire & Ash's smaller box office will translate to more at-home catch-up demand. Or maybe the franchise simply has a lower streaming ceiling than its predecessor.
Hoppers
As of this writing, Hoppers turned a $45.3 million opening into nearly $162 million domestic and close to $370 million worldwide. Theatrically, its nearest comp is Elemental ($29.6 million debut, finished at $154 million domestically), which launched on Disney+ with 28.8 million U.S. hours. Hoppers opened higher at the box office and is finishing in a better place. It carries strong Home Intent (38.4%, highest of the trio). Elemental's streaming debut is likely its floor.
Hoppers' Home-Free score (27.3%) — those planning to wait until it arrives on a streamer they already subscribe to — is four points above Zootopia 2's. That may not directly translate to higher totals than the Zootopia franchise. But it suggests that families who missed the Pixar original in theaters comprise the pent-up streaming demand vanguard. It's arguably the strongest streaming candidate of the three despite the more modest expectations for original IP.
Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu
The first film in seven years set in a galaxy far, far away still doesn't open for another month. That precludes any apples-to-apples comparisons with the aforementioned films. Still, a Home Intent of 30.1% (10.5% Home-Pay, 19.7% Home-Free) this far out signals a meaningful streaming audience already forming.
The Mandalorian originated on streaming and has built-in activation these other titles don't share. Disney+'s core younger-skewing audience associates the Star Wars brand more with TV than the big screen. For better and for worse, that's what happens when you release nearly 15 TV shows in a seven-year period.
Final Thoughts
Zootopia 2's impressive numbers reinforce a simple truth: sequels to massively popular films enjoy a much higher baseline. That compounding interest is the envy of every streaming platform in the game.
That's what makes these next three films — a threequel, an animated original, and a big-screen spinoff of a TV show based on a film franchise (!) — so compelling. How has the audience appetite shifted? Is the correlation between theatrical and streaming growing stronger or weaker? We're about to find out.
