OpenAI Shuts Down Sora, NewFronts Take Performance Literally

1. OpenAI Shuts Down Sora

Two weeks ago, in an interview with Business Insider’s James Faris, I noted that I was underwhelmed with Disney’s Sora partnership because it was the sort of thing most people would use once or twice and then forget about.

I did not, at the time, realize how prescient that comment was.

It seems people-other-than-Disney-fans had the same take on Sora, and the app, which started life at the heights of the app charts, was going to be shut down.

This seemed to take many in the chattering classes by surprise and there was all sorts of speculation about legal issues and not wanting to create more “AI Slop” and the need to “focus” to take on Anthropic.

All of which may indeed be true at some level, but the main reason is far simpler: Sora was a novelty act. And like most novelty acts, people quickly got bored.

Why It Matters

Most people are not creators.

This is a long-standing truth of the internet.

Or as long-standing as any internet truth can be.

That this is not more widely understood can be attributed to Facebook. Which, for the first 10 years or so of its existence, very much relied on the fact that most of its users were posting semi-regularly—life updates, what they ate for lunch or vacation photos—posts that were solely relevant to the people in their friend groups.

That behavior started dying off in the late 10s as younger users abandoned what had become known as “Mombook.”

Which is why it can currently resemble a ghost town for anyone under 65, up there with velour Juicy Couture sweatsuits and Von Dutch trucker caps as a relic of the 00s.

The platforms that replaced it, primarily Instagram and TikTok, were Creator platforms. 

Meaning most users post very rarely (if ever) and mostly consume content created by people who largely make their living creating and posting for social media. This latter group consists of a broad range that stretches from stand-up comedians and musicians to political pundits and OnlyFans stars.

So there’s that and there are actually stats to back it up. According to data from Andreessen Horowitz's Olivia Moore, Sora’s user retention rates dropped like a proverbial stone. Day 1 retention was just 10%, which then plummeted to 2% by Day 7, 1% by Day 30, and was closing in on 0% by Day 60. 

Ouch.

If we look at this through the Feudal Media lens, it’s a lot like the thing it resembles most: democracy.

Meaning lots of people are happy to vote and participate in a democracy. 

Just don’t expect them to run for office. 

Which was not what the original proponents of “citizen government" had imagined, but there you have it: rather than concerned citizens doing their civic duty, we have a class of professional politicians.

And in much the same way, social media, which was originally conceived of as a way for everyone to have a creative platform, now has a class of professional creators. 

Few of whom felt moved to become active on Sora.

So there’s that, though it might change with the introduction of Spud, OpenAI’s newest iteration, which is in testing and expected to roll out within the month. 

Spud allegedly uses a different type of training and technology and should thus avoid many of Sora’s more glaring errors, such as disappearing objects and an inability to render words as anything other than gibberish.

And while we’ve heard that one before, the bigger question is whether it is worth releasing it in the form of a consumer-facing app. 

Because to return to the original dilemma, a dog that can play electric guitar or a break-dancing Abraham Lincoln are clever the first five times you see them. And then…not so much.

So probably not.

What You Need To Do About It

If you are Sam Altman, Dario Amodei or any of their lesser known peers, remember that bit about democracy and levels of participation. 

Meaning that any video tool you are going to release should be designed for creators, not the general public. And that if those tools can help with editing, that is going to be your best use case. Because there is a lot more real video being shot that needs some magic in the edit suite than video being created solely from AI.

If you are Disney or another major IP holder, you probably want to do a lot of monitoring of these new platforms as well as existing ones like YouTube and TikTok to see just how much your IP is being used, by who and for what, and what sorts of tolerance levels you have.

Bearing in mind that plenty of people use cut and pasted illustrations of Cinderella and Snow White on poorly designed birthday party invitations they send out to their friends and no one thinks any less of your brand.

But if videos using your IP start blowing up on more public platforms with millions of viewers, that’s probably a good reason to spring into action. 

Something to keep an eye on for sure.

2. NewFronts Take Performance Literally

The NewFronts were this week and every year what’s being said here seems a little more relevant than what’s being said at the Upfronts.

Or maybe it’s the other way around.

Regardless, much of the news out the NewFronts was about performance or, more broadly, tangible results.

It’s at one level a reaction to the old Wanamaker axiom about half of all ad spend being wasted and at another a way to set streaming apart from linear.

Both of which are solid instincts in today’s fractured media environment.

Why It Matters

An easy way to see the evolution of streaming is through the lens of two major US players: LG and VIZIO.

Both are OEMs with their own proprietary operating systems and growing FAST services.

LG is, of course, owned by one of the largest consumer electronics companies on the planet.

And VIZIO, long an independent, is now owned by the largest bricks and mortar retailer on the planet. 

So not small potatoes.

In the early years, they, like most every other company in the space, ran with fairly basic stories: we have content, we have data around that content, it’s more accurate than linear.

The events were well-done but small: the mass of advertisers were still skeptical about what, at the time, was called “OTT.”

That story has evolved over the course of the past decade and then some.

So that VIZIO’s upfront this year was at the Perelman Arts Center, a large and impressive venue with multilevel theater style seating. 

The show was slick and corporate (in a good way)--well paced, well thought out and focused on (surprise) the notion of making things shoppable via Walmart and being able to measure those results. 

The aforementioned corporate vibe being nicely broken up at the end with an appearance by an alternatingly touching and hilarious Shaquille O’Neal.

One piece of news that had everyone buzzing: VIZIO viewers will now be able to log into their TVs using their Walmart accounts. 

Meaning game on for Amazon and their attempts at Total T-Commerce Domination.

LG’s show reflected its venue too—Webster Hall, a rock club in the East Village that was a major venue for up-and-coming bands back when there were still up-and-coming bands, and the vibe of their show reflected that.

There was a promise of guaranteed results, a partnership with Anoki that would allow brands to safely run ads on news shows by avoiding “bad” news and focusing on the more upbeat stories, a fireside with the legendary Stan Smith of white sneaker fame…, all capped off by an amazing 20 minute set from Wyclef Jean.

There was also the introduction of one of the more interesting content plays, Portrait TV, which is aimed at younger viewers and designed to feed off of multiple touchpoints, e.g. YouTube, TikTok, Spotify et al, rather than just live on TV.

It’s interesting for two reasons: this is the sort of multi-touchpoint setup the more forward thinking traditional media companies are looking to make happen, and the company reached out to LG, rather than one of those big traditional media companies, because they understood they were likely to get more love and attention from LG.

What You Need To Do About It

If you are an advertiser, take in that this is where all the excitement is happening in TV land.

That the big media companies who will participate in the upfronts will show off big budget series and forget to mention that most of them will be watched by ad-free viewers.

It’s not that they’re not trying, it’s just, to use a common analogy, like trying to turn around a massive ocean liner.

Whereas the OEMs and other OS operators like TiVo are more like speedboats. Or maybe yachts. More nimble and better able to reflect the more recent changes the industry is experiencing.

If you are the IAB or one of the many companies that took part in this year’s NewFronts (an event I co-hosted back in the pandemic year of 2020) take a bow—it has been so gratifying to see the rapid rise in relevance as ad buyers confront the death of the monoculture (which, it seems, was the theme of Tubi’s own NewFront event this year) and the fragmented environment of the age of Feudal Media.