Why Did ‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ Open So Much Smaller Than ‘The Way Of Water?’
As Rocky Balboa famously says in the infamously terrible Rocky V, “I didn’t hear no bell.” It’s a great little moment that signals there’s still fight left in the dog. It’s also a sentiment Hollywood should keep in mind when looking at Avatar: Fire and Ash’s $88 million domestic opening weekend, which fell well short of The Way of Water’s $134 million debut.
Time off from work and school during the December holidays typically translates to leggy box office runs. That’s why no one should be counting out James Cameron’s threequel (especially after a nice $347 million global debut). Still, it’s fair to look back and diagnose how Fire and Ash opened 34% below its predecessor.
In final tracking before release, Fire and Ash (76%) led The Way of Water in Awareness (70%) and was roughly even in overall Interest (around 58% apiece), according to Greenlight Analytics. But it lagged in Theatrical Intent (53% vs. 62%) and Willingness to Pay a Fee (61% vs. 75%). Zooming in further, Fire and Ash also wasn’t quite as four-quadrant-friendly out of the gate. Just before release, enthusiasm was softer among the 35+ crowd, with women in that age range emerging as the softest quadrant overall.
While The Way of Water benefited from a 13-year gap that compounded anticipation and curiosity, Fire and Ash arrived after just a three year wait. That shorter runway may have hindered its ability to convert sky-high awareness and healthy interest into the same level of theatrical urgency, even as it still looks poised to become one of the year’s highest-grossing films.
That dynamic shows up in its relatively modest scores for Opening Weekend Theatrical Intent Among Aware Audiences (17%), Interest Among Unaware Audiences (13%), and Theatrical Intent Among Unaware Audiences (8%). The latter two categories represent untapped upside: audiences that find the concept appealing and are willing to see it in theaters, but haven’t necessarily been reached by the marketing yet. When activated, these moviegoers often fuel breakout performances. Fire and Ash didn’t quite capture enough of them early on, which may also reflect the crowded holiday release slate (The Handmaid, David, SpongeBob, and Zootopia 2 still chugging).
At this point, it’s unlikely Fire and Ash crosses the same $2 billion benchmark as the first two films. But less broad appeal and softer conversion aren’t death knells. One question I keep coming back to, given the gap in WTP scores, is how the film will perform on streaming. (WTP reflects audiences willing to buy a theatrical ticket, make a VOD transaction, or sign up for a streamer.) The Way of Water ranked as 2023’s ninth most-streamed movie in the U.S., logging 6.4 billion minutes across Disney+ and HBO Max, per Nielsen.
We know there’s a modest correlation between high WTP scores and top streaming titles. One could argue that a smaller theatrical run leaves a larger at-home audience among those who skipped theaters. That makes Fire and Ash another intriguing case study alongside Barbie and Top Gun: Maverick—two massive theatrical hits that slightly underwhelmed on streaming.
Just because Fire and Ash is running behind The Way of Water doesn’t make it a disappointment. But understanding the factors behind its dip is essential for cross-platform franchise forecasting and long-term maintenance going forward.
