The Ceiling on Original R-Rated Dramas Is Getting Lower

Warner Bros. is among the very best Hollywood studios when it comes to selling heat for a non-event film. But will the Dream Factory’s marketing magic make One Battle After Another its eight consecutive movie to open with at least $40 million at the box office? It’s unlikely. 

Leonardo DiCaprio headlines Paul Thomas Anderson’s upcoming adventure dramedy, which reportedly cost around $130 million. Personally, I think it looks awesome. But I’m highlighting it today because it belongs to a dying breed: the original R-rated adult-skewing prestige popcorn movie. At a time when the majority of Best Picture nominees fail to drum up healthy ticket sales and streaming viewership, these types of movies are becoming fewer and further between. 

One Battle After Another is in line with similar recent comps — Sinners ($48 million opening weekend), Air ($14.4 million) and Killers of the Flower Moon ($23.2 million) — when it comes to Awareness (36%), Interest (48%) and Theatrical Intent (40%) two-to-three weeks before release, according to Greenlight Analytics. But it lags both Air (57%) and Killers (60%) among those willing to pay a fee to see the film (either a theatrical ticket or VOD transaction). This speaks to the tail of potential monetization. 

That’s not to say One Battle is dead on arrival. It’s consistently resonating with male viewers, with the under 35 crowd surprisingly over-indexing slightly more than the 35 and older demographic. Plus, it’s converting interest into theatrical intent at a decent clip. But it lacks urgency at this time. Air had stronger Theatrical Intent (45% vs 40%) at the same pre-release point, suggesting that prestige positioning plus brand relevance can help boost interest. One Battle tracking above Sinners in key metrics on paper, but doesn’t boast the genre hook or cultural resonance. It’s simply a tougher sell (elevated Taken?). 

There’s a clear ceiling for adult drama in theaters these days. All four movies were stuck between 36%-39% awareness at the same pre-release point. Finding a way to curve that original R-rated plateau is critical for success. At this point, WB needs to emphasize conversion of those aware and interested rather than chasing raw awareness alone. Expanding the demographic profile would help too. 

Thanks to Leo’s star power, One Battle might eventually fare better on streaming than recent Oscars-types such as The Brutalist, Conclave and Nickel Boys. (Anora did fine on Hulu for a prestige film). But unless WB has an ace up its sleeve in these last two weeks, its $40 million streak might come to an end. Zooming out, I’m worried about how drastically the adult-skewing drama is becoming less and less commercial across mediums.